The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) considers an invasion of Ukraine by the Belarusian army extremely unlikely.
The institute’s analysts believe that Belarus is unlikely to invade Ukraine due to the possibility of renewed domestic unrest. Lukashenko relies on elements of the Belarusian Armed Forces and security forces to suppress popular protests. Therefore, involving this security apparatus in the war in Ukraine would likely leave Lukashenko vulnerable to renewed unrest and resistance and undermine his credibility as the leader of a sovereign country.
Deputy Chief of the Ukrainian General Staff Oleksiy Hromov previously said that 15,000 Belarusian military personnel and up to 9,000 Russian troops stationed in Belarus could theoretically participate in the war with Ukraine. However, the Belarusian military will still be a small force that would not be able to achieve significant operational success.
A Belarusian invasion “would not be able to do more than draw Ukrainian ground forces away from other parts of the theater temporarily given the extremely limited effective combat power at Minsk’s disposal,” ISW’s experts note.