Belarus in 2020-2026
A Chronicle of Courage and Resilience
2020
On August 9, hundreds of thousands of Belarusians took their indignation to the streets after a stolen vote. Independent polling data and ballot photos pointed to Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya as the clear winner in the presidential election. Stepping in for her imprisoned husband, she had established a broad coalition and united a critical mass of Belarusians behind her candidacy. After the official results handed an implausible 80% to long-entrenched autocrat Alexander Lukashenko, mass protests erupted across Belarus. The regime responded with brutality: riot police used stun grenades, rubber bullets and water cannons. Nearly 7,000 protesters and bystanders were detained in four days, many of them subjected to beatings and torture. At least four people died as a result of police actions. The democratic movement launched the Coordination Council to negotiate a peaceful transition but Lukashenko, emboldened by Moscow’s backing, doubled down on repression. Tsikhanouskaya was forced into exile. Many opposition leaders were arrested, including Viktar Babaryka and Maria Kalesnikava. As the protest marches continued, so did the arrests. By year’s end, over 30,000 people had been detained: some held briefly, others sentenced to years behind bars.
2021
As crackdowns intensified, enormous rallies gradually gave way to smaller acts of resistance, such as neighborhood flash mobs, murals and online campaigns. The hacktivist collective Cyber Partisans continued its operations from exile, exposing police informants and collecting personal data on top officials. Shaken by the unprecedented protests, the regime did all it could to dismantle what remained of Belarusian civil society. Independent media outlets were raided and shuttered. More and more nongovernmental organizations were branded “extremist”. Hundreds of thousands of Belarusians fled to Lithuania, Poland, Ukraine, Georgia and other countries in what soon became one of the largest brain drains in modern European history. Diaspora communities in Warsaw, Vilnius and beyond organized regular solidarity campaigns, keeping Belarus in European political discourse.
2022
On February 24, Russian troops invaded Ukraine from Belarusian territory, deploying from military bases Lukashenko had provided to Vladimir Putin. In the following six weeks, more than 1,500 Belarusians were arrested for anti-war protests. Persecution targeted even symbolic gestures, such as wearing blue and yellow clothing or laying flowers at the Ukrainian embassy. However, there were also numerous acts of sabotage targeting railway lines used for Russian troop movements. Cyber Partisans amplified the disruption by hacking the railway management systems. The Belarusian Hajun initiative managed to gather thousands of reports from Belarusians tracking Russian military activity. In Ukraine, the Kastus Kalinouski Regiment united Belarusian combatants who saw the fight against Russian aggression as part of their own struggle against Lukashenko. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, operating from Vilnius, helmed the effort of democratic-minded Belarusians who unanimously condemned the war and joined volunteer networks to support Ukraine.
2023
In the second year of war,
the Kalinouski Regiment fought on the front lines in Ukraine’s counteroffensive, while railway partisans continued sabotage acts inside Belarus. Tsikhanouskaya pressed Western governments to maintain sanctions against the regime. The Belarusian security apparatus expanded targeting dissidents through their social media accounts and digital footprints, armed with sophisticated surveillance tools. Viasna and other human rights groups documented an unceasing drumbeat of searches, interrogations and detentions. Viasna’s verified count registered approximately 1,500 political prisoners, but the real number exceeded this figure substantially as gathering reliable data proved extremely challenging. Belarus’ political and economic dependence on Moscow deepened further, producing devastating impacts on energy infrastructure, trade flows and logistical operations.
2024
The human rights situation in Belarus remained severely repressive throughout the year. According to Amnesty International, torture and ill-treatment remained endemic in detention facilities, with perpetrators enjoying effective impunity. Tragically, at least seven political prisoners died in custody since 2021, with four of those deaths occurring in 2024 alone and directly linked to harsh detention conditions and lack of medical care. However, economic and political pressures weighed so heavily on the regime that Lukashenko initiated releasing small groups of political prisoners from July onward, in an attempt to signal openness to talks with the West. The opposition in exile sustained its advocacy effort and kept up their push for unconditional release of all unjustly detained.
2025
In January, Lukashenko claimed yet another presidential term with a sham election against nominal candidates. There were no protests inside the country because the cost had been made unbearable. Yet the regime sensed an opportunity in the shifting geopolitical winds. The incoming US administration signaled openness to selective sanctions relief in exchange for the release of political prisoners. Throughout the year, several hundred people were wrested free by diplomacy and pressure. Among them were some of the most prominent figures of the 2020 movement, Maria Kalesnikava, Viktar Babaryka and Ales Bialiatski, who had become a Nobel Peace Prize laureate behind bars. All of them were expelled from Belarusian territory, many without passports or any personal documents. Mikola Statkevich, a veteran opposition figure, refused to leave the country and was imprisoned anew. The Belarusian diaspora swiftly mobilized to help the released dissidents, rallying donations, legal assistance and accommodation.
2026
As the war in Ukraine grinds on, Belarus remains firmly in Moscow’s orbit, its sovereignty greatly eroded. Viasna’s reports confirm that the repressions remain daily routine: nearly 900 political prisoners still held, daily detentions continuing. Recently, the exiled Belarusian university EHU that operates in Vilnius has been proclaimed extremist by Minsk, making thousands of students, teaching staff and their families to “criminals“ overnight. And yet the story is not entirely one of despair. As Tsikhanouskaya noted at the New Belarus Conference, Lukashenko’s time is inevitably coming to an end. In exile, a generation of Belarusian journalists, lawyers and activists built institutions that did not exist before 2020: media networks, aid funds, business organizations and more. Cultural initiatives and publishing houses are recreating a national identity that the regime had spent three decades suppressing. The Ukrainian government has deepened cooperation with Belarusian opposition leaders. A movement that was meant to be crushed in weeks has endured for years, adapting and evolving at every turn.